2004 Venezuelan Presidential Recall Referendum (2004 PRR): A Statistical Analysis from the Point of View of Electronic Voting Data Transmissions

摘要

Statistical comparisons of electoral variables are made between groups ofelectronic voting machines and voting centers classified by types oftransmissions according to the volume of traffic in incoming and outgoing dataof machines from and toward the National Electoral Council (CNE) totalizingservers. One unexpectedly finds two types of behavior in wire telephony datatransmissions and only one type where cellular telephony is employed,contravening any reasonable electoral normative. Differentiation in datatransmissions arise when comparing number of incoming and outgoing data bytesper machine against total number of votes per machine reported officially bythe CNE. The respective distributions of electoral variables for each type oftransmission show that the groups classified by it do not correspond to randomsets of the electoral universe. In particular, the distributions for the NOpercentage of votes per machine differ statistically across groups. Thepresidential elections of 1998, 2000 and the 2004 Presidential RecallReferendum (2004 PRR) are compared according to the type of transmissions in2004 PRR. Statistically, the difference between the empirical distributions ofthe 2004 PRR NO results and the 2000 Chavez votes results by voting centers isnot significant.